Who might replace Iran’s supreme leader? There’s no clear successor
Who might replace Iran’s supreme leader? There’s no clear successor
After the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a coordinated US-Israeli attack, Iran’s clerical leadership faces the challenge of identifying a new figure to assume control. Unlike previous transitions, there is no formal heir designated for the position. Instead, the Assembly of Experts—a body of 88 senior clerics—will oversee the selection process. This task has only occurred once since the Islamic Republic’s founding in 1979, when Khamenei was swiftly chosen to succeed Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini nearly three decades earlier.
There is urgency to stabilize the regime, with the assembly expected to convene soon to evaluate candidates. However, tensions remain due to US President Donald Trump’s promise to sustain the joint bombing campaign targeting Iran’s leadership. This creates uncertainty about the feasibility of assembling the group in the near future.
Key contenders for the leadership
Among the potential candidates, Mojtaba, Khamenei’s second son, stands out for his ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Basij paramilitary forces. Though he holds significant sway behind the scenes, his lack of formal clerical rank and absence of an official role in governance present obstacles. Mojtaba was also sanctioned by the United States in 2019, highlighting his perceived alignment with hardline policies.
“Khamenei’s decision to appoint Arafi to key positions suggests he trusted the cleric’s administrative skills,” noted Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute.
Arafi, a trusted figure within the regime, is currently deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts and has served on the Guardian Council, which reviews election candidates and legislative measures. While respected for his religious expertise and linguistic versatility, Arafi is not seen as a major political player and maintains limited connections to security agencies.
Another name in the mix is Mirbagheri, a hardline cleric representing the most conservative faction of the clerical establishment. He has expressed strong opposition to Western influence, arguing that the high casualties in Israel’s Gaza war were justified to draw closer to divine ideals. According to IranWire, he views the conflict between believers and infidels as inevitable.
Khomeini, the grandson of the Islamic Republic’s founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, brings a legacy of religious and revolutionary authority. While he manages the mausoleum of his grandfather and has a less rigid approach compared to peers, he was excluded from running for the Assembly of Experts in 2016, indicating his limited influence within the ruling elite.
Bushehri, a senior cleric with close ties to the succession framework, serves as first deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts. He is seen as a key figure in the process but has maintained a low public profile and lacks strong connections to the IRGC, distinguishing him from more assertive candidates.
The selection process will hinge on the assembly’s interpretation of constitutional criteria, which require the successor to be a male cleric with political acumen, moral standing, and unwavering support for the Islamic Republic. This framework may sideline reformist clerics who advocate for social openness and international engagement, shaping the next leader’s vision for the country.
