How depleted weapons stockpiles could affect the Iran conflict
The Impact of Weapon Stockpile Depletion on the Iran Conflict
US President Donald Trump asserts that his nation possesses a nearly boundless stockpile of critical armaments. Meanwhile, Iran’s defense ministry maintains that its country can endure the conflict longer than the United States anticipated. However, experts note that weapon reserves alone may not determine the war’s conclusion, as seen in Ukraine’s prolonged struggle against Russia. Still, they are a vital component in shaping the outcome.
From the outset, the war has seen intense activity. Both sides are exhausting their ammunition at a rapid pace, surpassing production rates. The Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) reports that the US and Israel have executed over 2,000 strikes, each involving multiple munitions. In response, Iran has launched 571 missiles and 1,391 drones, though many have been intercepted. As the conflict continues, sustaining this level of engagement will grow increasingly difficult for all parties.
Iran’s Production and Weapon Shift
Before the war, Iran was estimated to hold more than 2,000 short-range ballistic missiles. Yet, its missile output has dropped significantly. Gen Dan Caine, America’s top commander, stated that launches have decreased by 86% compared to the first day of fighting. Similarly, drone strikes have fallen by 73%. This decline may signal a strategy to conserve supplies, but maintaining production is becoming more challenging.
“After the initial attack from a distance, the US can now use less expensive missiles and bombs,” says Mark Cancian, a former US Marine colonel at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He adds that the country could maintain this pace “almost indefinitely,” though the war’s duration will influence the sustainability of such efforts.
Iran had mass-produced tens of thousands of Shahed drones prior to the conflict, sharing the technology with Russia. The US has since replicated the design, but the reduction in drone launches suggests Iran is struggling to keep up. Meanwhile, US and Israeli jets now dominate the skies over Iran, with most of its air defenses dismantled. This aerial superiority has weakened Iran’s ability to retaliate effectively.
Centcom outlines the next phase of the war as targeting Iran’s missile and drone launchers, its stockpiles, and production facilities. While this could erode Iran’s combat capabilities, fully destroying all its weapons reserves remains challenging. Iran’s vast territory, three times the size of France, allows for hidden stockpiles, complicating efforts to neutralize them.
Recent conflicts highlight the limitations of air-based warfare. Despite three years of relentless bombing, Israel has not eradicated Hamas in Gaza. Similarly, Houthi rebels in Yemen endured a year-long US campaign with minimal impact on their arsenal. These examples underscore the resilience of weapon stockpiles against aerial assaults.
The US remains the world’s most powerful military force, with deeper conventional reserves than any other nation. However, its reliance on costly precision-guided weapons, such as Tomahawk cruise missiles, has shifted. Caine mentions the transition to less expensive “stand-in” weapons like JDAM bombs, which can be deployed closer to targets. Trump is reported to meet with defense contractors this week to accelerate production, signaling potential strain on American resources.
As the war progresses, the list of viable targets will shrink, leading to a gradual slowdown in offensive operations. While the US has the capacity to sustain its efforts, the long-term viability of this strategy depends on maintaining both supply and firepower. The battle for Iran’s weapons stockpiles may define the conflict’s next stage.
