How long can Iran continue the war?
How Long Can Iran Continue the War?
Iran faces the US and Israel in a conflict where it operates independently. The country’s leadership is banking on its missile and drone arsenal, refusing to back down. According to Ali Larijani, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, the regime has positioned itself for an extended conflict. He emphasized,
“We will defend ourselves, whatever the cost.”
Since early March, the US and Israel have launched a coordinated assault on Iranian targets, focusing on key figures and critical infrastructure. Despite the loss of several high-ranking officials, the Islamic theocratic government remains intact. Tehran has retaliated by striking Israeli and Gulf nations, including US military installations. The United Arab Emirates reported being hit by numerous Iranian projectiles recently.
Admiral Brad Cooper, US Central Command leader, stated that Iran had launched over 500 ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones by March 4. He criticized the attacks for targeting civilians. A weapons analyst, speaking to DW, noted,
“We don’t know exactly how many ballistic missiles and drones Iran actually has.”
Initial Israeli assessments on the conflict’s opening day suggested Iran possessed around 2,500 ballistic missiles. However, this stockpile has likely diminished due to both missile launches and US-Israeli strikes that destroyed storage facilities. Satellite imagery shows damage to bases in Kermanshah, Karaj, Khorramabad, and northern Tabriz, with collapsed tunnels indicating underground sites were hit.
Mobile missile launchers are also under intense pressure, according to the analyst. “What was once challenging is now achievable thanks to advancements in technology,” they said. Yet, uncertainty remains about how many systems have been neutralized. The exact number of missiles relocated and operational launchers still in use is unclear.
Iran’s capacity to sustain the conflict hinges on its ability to replenish resources. Leaked Russian documents suggest Tehran can manufacture approximately 5,000 drones monthly. These drones, launched from basic scaffolds assembled quickly, cost several thousand dollars each. In contrast, a US-made Patriot interceptor costs nearly $3 million.
The New York Times analyzed satellite data and video footage, revealing Iran’s use of short-range missiles and drones to target US bases in the Middle East. Seven facilities are said to have been damaged, disrupting communication and radar systems. While the US keeps its infrastructure details secret, the attacks imply a strategic effort to hinder coordination and response capabilities.
Fawaz Gerges, an international relations professor at the London School of Economics, observed,
“Iran will try to prolong the war and is playing for time.”
He argued that the leadership has had time to strategize, preparing for a prolonged struggle. The regime’s objective, he noted, is resilience—surviving attacks and continuing its fight.
