White House staff told not to place bets on prediction markets

White House Advises Against Using Confidential Data in Prediction Markets

Following a recent directive, White House personnel were instructed to avoid leveraging confidential information for betting activities on prediction platforms. This alert was issued on 24 March, shortly after President Donald Trump announced a temporary halt to potential military strikes against Iranian energy facilities. The communication highlighted concerns over officials participating in financial wagers using non-public data, as noted in media coverage.

The Wall Street Journal published the email on Thursday, revealing that the administration emphasized adherence to ethical standards. White House spokesperson Davis Ingle defended the policy, stating,

“any implication that Administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting.”

He further noted that all federal employees must comply with guidelines preventing the misuse of insider knowledge for personal profit.

Predictions markets, which facilitate over $44bn in transactions annually, have gained traction in recent months. These platforms allow users to wager on diverse outcomes, ranging from sports events to political developments. For example, bets can be placed on whether the U.S. central bank will adjust interest rates or the outcome of municipal elections. However, trades linked to conflicts have sparked debates about regulatory oversight.

Earlier this year, Polymarket faced scrutiny after an anonymous trader earned nearly half a million dollars betting on the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro before the event was officially confirmed. The trader’s blockchain-linked account raised questions about potential access to classified military intelligence. The BBC is currently seeking comments from Kalshi and Polymarket.

Meanwhile, U.S. Congressman Ritchie Torres, a Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, has urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to investigate “suspicious” trades. The commission oversees derivatives markets, including prediction platforms. In March, Democratic leaders proposed legislation to ban betting on war-related events, citing fears of corruption. Senator Andy Kim of New Jersey echoed these concerns, asserting,

“Corruption and exploitation are thriving right now within the gaps and loopholes of prediction markets. This manipulation leaves the select few winning big, at the expense of working Americans.”