Can stats help you find the Grand National winner?
Can stats help you find the Grand National winner?
Grand National 2026: Saturday, 11 April, 16:00 BST
The Grand National, a cornerstone of the British horse racing calendar, has long been celebrated for its unpredictability. With 34 competitors vying for glory, selecting the victor feels like a gamble, yet historical data might offer some clues for 2026.
Since 2000, the race has seen 25 renewals, interrupted by the 2020 cancellation due to the pandemic. Tiger Roll’s 4-1 odds in 2019 marked the shortest-priced triumph, a feat unmatched since Red Rum’s dominance in the 1970s. Conversely, Mon Mome’s 100-1 victory in 2009 remains the most expensive win in the race’s modern history. Last year’s winner, Nick Rockett, was priced at 33-1, aligning with the century’s average of just under 24-1. Notably, eight winners have been listed at 33-1 or higher, suggesting that higher odds shouldn’t deter punters.
Over the past two decades, the average weight of winners has hovered between 10st 12lb and 10st 13lb. This range has produced three victors, with 11st 6lb being the most successful individual weight, securing three wins. If this trend persists, the top six horses in the 2026 field—especially I Am Maximus, aiming to become the first heavy favorite since Red Rum’s 12-stone victory in 1974—could be overlooked.
Age has also played a role in recent years. No horse older than 10 has triumphed since 2014, though Noble Yeats broke this pattern in 2022 by becoming the first seven-year-old to win since Bogskar in 1940. The past decade saw six eight-year-olds and three nine-year-olds claiming victory, with Tiger Roll’s 2019 return to the top of the rankings adding to the mix.
Trainers like Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott have consistently performed well, with Mullins training the last two winners despite it being his first success since 2005. Elliott’s partnership with Tiger Roll, who secured back-to-back wins, highlights their track record. Henry de Bromhead, who claimed the 2021 victory, also has a strong presence, with two top-five finishes. Together, these three trainers will oversee 16 of the 34 runners in 2026.
Jockeys have shown varied fortunes. Paul Townend, who had two places in the 2020s, has chosen I Am Maximus as his stable pick. Jack Kennedy has reached the top five on four occasions, while Mark Walsh and Danny Mullins have each achieved three and two top-five finishes, respectively.
In short, no.
The Grand National stands out as a test of endurance, featuring unique challenges in its course design compared to other seasonal races. While factors like weight, age, and trainer influence can shape the outcome, the race’s inherent unpredictability makes it difficult to forecast with certainty.
