Can the US military sustain a long war in Iran?
Can the US military sustain a long war in Iran?
On February 28, the United States initiated Operation Epic Fury in Iran, marking the start of a sustained campaign. Over the following week, the US executed thousands of attacks across the country, employing more than 20 weapon systems across air, land, and sea. The initial strikes saw Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, killed in a US-Israeli operation. Despite the rapid pace of attacks, US President Donald Trump asserted the conflict could last four to five weeks, yet emphasized the military’s capacity to extend the war indefinitely.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, during a visit to US Central Command in Florida on March 5, claimed the US possesses “no shortage of munitions,” asserting that stockpiles of offensive and defensive weapons allow for prolonged operations. General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, echoed this sentiment, stating, “We have enough precision munitions to meet the demands of this mission, both in attack and defense.”
Weapon Cost Disparities Raise Concerns
While the US has ample resources for shorter-range weapons, higher-grade systems face challenges. Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, highlighted that the most advanced missiles and interceptors are in limited supply. “There are genuine limitations in stockpiles at the top tier,” she noted, adding that Trump’s distinction between weapon grades reflects these concerns.
“The cost of operating a fighter jet for an hour equals the price of a Shahed-136 drone,” said Grieco. “This isn’t a favorable cost exchange.”
Shahed-136 drones, costing $20,000 to $50,000 each, have prompted significant defense spending. The US and allies have deployed fighter jets equipped with AIM-9 missiles, which cost $450,000 per shot, along with $40,000 hourly operational expenses. Grieco suggested the US could adopt cheaper alternatives, such as interceptor drones, which are less costly than Shaheds. “The US has tested this technology,” she said, “but hasn’t scaled production sufficiently.”
Patriot missiles, priced at around $3 million each, are critical for countering Iran’s ballistic threats. Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies warned that these high-end systems are being depleted quickly. “We started with about 1,000 Patriots and have already used 200-300,” he estimated. Production delays further complicate matters, as Lockheed Martin delivered only 620 PAC-3 interceptors in 2025. “If you asked for another Patriot today, it would take at least two years to arrive,” Cancian said.
Recent efforts to bolster supplies include Trump’s March 6 meeting with defense manufacturers. The White House stated the talks had been planned for weeks, with companies agreeing to quadruple production of top-tier weaponry. However, Grieco questioned the novelty of these commitments, noting, “This felt like a non-announcement since most deals were already announced in the prior months.”
