Can the US sustain its war in Iran?

Can the US Sustain Its War in Iran?

President Donald Trump asserted that the United States possesses “nearly limitless” ammunition reserves, while his defense secretary claimed Iran has “little chance” of enduring the conflict. Yet, concerns arise over dwindling stockpiles of high-grade defensive missiles. On February 28, the U.S. initiated “Operation Epic Fury” against Iran, launching thousands of attacks within days. Over the following week, the U.S. deployed over 20 weapon systems across air, land, and sea, striking thousands of targets nationwide.

Initial Strikes and Leadership Loss

In the early phase of the operation, a joint U.S.-Israeli strike reportedly eliminated Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. Trump projected the conflict could last four to five weeks but emphasized the U.S. could extend it indefinitely. The administration maintained confidence in its military capabilities, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stating, “We’ve got no shortage of munitions,” during a visit to US Central Command in Florida. General Dan Caine, the Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair, echoed this sentiment: “We have sufficient precision munitions for the task at hand, both on the offense and defense.”

“We’ve got no shortage of munitions,” said Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth during a visit to US Central Command in Florida.

“We have sufficient precision munitions for the task at hand, both on the offense and defense,” added General Dan Caine, the Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair.

Cost Concerns and Resource Allocation

Despite Trump’s reassurances, experts highlight challenges in sustaining the war. Kelly Grieco of the Stimson Center noted that the president’s distinction between weapon grades is critical. “High-grade weapons like these take time to build,” she explained, citing that Lockheed Martin delivered only 620 PAC-3 interceptors in 2025. The more expensive Patriot missiles, priced around $3 million each, are used to counter Iran’s ballistic threats, raising fears of rapid depletion.

“There are real limitations on stockpiles there,” said Kelly Grieco, senior fellow at the Stimson Center think tank.

Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated that Patriot missile usage has already consumed a significant portion of the inventory. “At the beginning, I think there were about 1,000 Patriots, and we’ve chewed into that inventory quite a bit now,” he said. Meanwhile, Iran’s Shahed 136 drones, costing $20,000 to $50,000 each, have been deployed in large numbers. Grieco pointed out that the cost of operating a fighter jet for an hour equals the price of a Shahed drone, calling it an inefficient exchange.

“The cost of operating the fighter for an hour is equivalent to the cost of a Shahed,” said Kelly Grieco.

Efforts to Boost Production

On March 6, Trump met with defense firms, announcing plans to quadruple the production of top-tier weaponry. The White House noted this was a long-planned initiative. However, Grieco questioned the urgency, stating, “I found that to be like a non-announcement because in the last months most of these had already been announced.” Lockheed Martin’s agreement to increase Patriot PAC-3 production from 600 to 2,000 per year was already public, underscoring the need for strategic planning.

For shorter-range systems such as bombs and Hellfire missiles, the situation appears more manageable. Cancian suggested the U.S. could sustain operations for an extended period, noting, “Militarily, I think we could sustain it for a very long time. We have the ground munitions to do that.”