Bowen: Trump has called for an Iran uprising but the lessons from Iraq in 1991 loom large
Bowen: Trump’s Call for Iran’s Uprising Echoes Iraq’s 1991 Lessons
A Moment of Mistake in History
Three decades later, I reflect on it every time I hear Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu urging Iranians to seize a rare opportunity to dismantle their regime, without guaranteeing direct support. This scenario mirrors one I witnessed firsthand in 1991, during the early stages of the Gulf War. At the time, President George H.W. Bush stood in a Massachusetts factory, praising workers who crafted the Patriot missile system—the latest defense technology for the conflict then unfolding in Kuwait.
“There’s another way for the bloodshed to stop…and that is for the Iraqi military and the Iraqi people to take matters into their own hands and force Saddam Hussein, the dictator, to step aside…”
Bush’s remarks were brief, yet they carried profound weight. The UN had authorized the war, but his speech hinted at a broader strategy: leveraging public sentiment to pressure Saddam. The Americans and their allies were already launching air strikes, targeting both Iraqi forces and urban areas. Tens of thousands of troops were poised for a ground assault, set to begin nine days later. I was in Baghdad, documenting the war’s progress, when the attack on Amiriyah shelter claimed over 400 civilian lives. The coalition’s forces asserted it was a command center, but the evidence spoke otherwise—the bodies of children, women, and the elderly, and the smoldering remnants of the building, told a different story.
Consequences of a Misguided Strategy
Though the workers in the factory cheered Bush’s words, the message reached some Iraqis who believed the uprising could succeed without external aid. After Iraq’s army was pushed out of Kuwait, a ceasefire allowed Saddam to retain power. In the north, Kurdish rebels and southern Shia fighters rose up, emboldened by the idea of U.S. backing. Yet the coalition remained passive, leaving the regime to retaliate. Helicopters, still operational, became tools of destruction, killing thousands of Kurds and Shia Muslims.
The Americans and British had promised a no-fly zone to protect the rebels, but their commitment faltered. I watched from the snowy mountains of Kurdish territory as families brought the bodies of their children, wrapped in blankets, to makeshift camps. The cold and dysentery claimed lives, and the rebels believed the U.S. would act to save them. Their assumption proved costly, as the coalition eventually intervened to rescue the Kurds, while Shias in the south faced harsher fates.
The Ripple Effect of War
That first Gulf War sowed seeds for future conflicts. The no-fly zone, the permanent bases, and the growing influence of foreign forces fueled resentment. In Saudi Arabia, Osama bin Laden, enraged by the presence of troops near holy sites, began organizing Al Qaeda. The 2003 invasion, led by George W. Bush, marked a turning point. Saddam was ousted, and Iran emerged as a regional power, emboldened by the collapse of its arch-rival. Now, the third Gulf War aims to challenge that rise, with bombing campaigns targeting Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities. Israel, in particular, sees these ambitions as existential threats.
Bush’s father had initiated the first Gulf War, and his son completed it, believing it was a continuation of the same mission. Today, Trump’s approach—calling for an Iranian uprising without clear backing—seems to echo that pattern. The lesson from 1991 remains stark: when leaders promise change but fail to deliver, the consequences can be devastating. The past is not just a shadow; it’s a guide, warning of what might unfold if the current strategy falters.”
