Exclusive: Iranian authorities prepare for civil war scenario

Exclusive: Iranian Authorities Plan for Civil War

With Israeli and U.S. assaults on Iran persisting, officials are now considering civil war as a potential outcome. Sources close to the situation revealed to Middle East Eye that military and political leaders have begun strategizing for such a scenario, anticipating future hostilities.

Post-Conflict Preparedness

Following the June conflict, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was empowered to take autonomous action in key regions. This shift allows them to function independently if communication with central command is disrupted.

Senior security officials noted that the U.S. and Israel might repeat tactics used in Iraq and Syria during the next war. They observed that the 12-day confrontation demonstrated Iran’s ability to retaliate with nationwide missile capabilities, prompting a strategic recalibration.

Kurdish Regions as Priority Targets

Kurdish factions in Iraqi Kurdistan recently unified under a single alliance, vowing to challenge the Iranian government. This development has intensified concerns about separatist movements within Iran’s borders.

“Separatist groups should not think they will have an opportunity to act. We will not tolerate them,” warned Ali Larijani, head of the Supreme National Security Council, in a December message.

Iranian forces have stationed additional troops in Kurdistan, East Azerbaijan, and West Azerbaijan, regions historically marked by tensions with the central government. These areas have seen prolonged pressure from Tehran for over a century, both pre- and post-revolution.

Regional Vulnerabilities

Missile strikes targeting Kurdish cities like Marivan, Sanandaj, Saqqez, Baneh, Sarvabad, and Kermanshah have become frequent since February. These attacks focus on military bases, police stations, and administrative hubs, signaling a broad offensive strategy.

Meanwhile, Iran launched coordinated missile strikes on Kurdish armed groups’ headquarters in Iraqi Kurdistan, underscoring its readiness to counter internal threats. Similar anxieties persist in Khuzestan, where separatist forces have escalated attacks in the oil-rich southwest.

International Involvement

Reports indicate the U.S. is engaging with Iranian Kurdish groups to entice them into conflict. This collaboration could further destabilize regions already under strain. The Iranian government, meanwhile, has fortified its military presence to address potential uprisings across the country.