Trump’s Hormuz deadline looms but Asian nations have already struck deals with Iran
Trump’s Hormuz Deadline Looms but Asian Nations Have Already Secured Agreements with Iran
US President Donald Trump issued a warning on Monday, stating that Iran could face a swift military strike if it failed to finalize a deal by 20:00 Washington DC time on Tuesday (00:00GMT Wednesday) to restore access to the Strait of Hormuz. However, prior to this ultimatum, several nations had already reached bilateral understandings with Tehran to allow their vessels to navigate the strategic waterway. Asian countries, notably the Philippines, have shown particular eagerness to establish such agreements, driven by their reliance on Gulf-based energy supplies.
The Strait of Hormuz has become a focal point for global tensions following Tehran’s retaliation against US and Israeli air strikes. The nation’s threat to target ships in the passage has led to a significant rise in oil prices, as the waterway serves as a vital artery for a fifth of the world’s energy exports. Trump previously claimed the US no longer depended on Gulf oil, urging energy-dependent nations to deploy warships to the strait and take initiative in ensuring uninterrupted trade.
Asia’s Strategic Moves
In recent weeks, multiple Asian nations, including Pakistan, India, and the Philippines, have negotiated safe passage for their vessels through the strait with Iran. China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil, confirmed that some of its ships had traversed the waterway, though details on the agreements remained scarce. Vessel-tracking data reveal that US-sanctioned Iranian oil continues to reach Chinese ports, despite the ongoing conflict.
“The agreement was vital in ensuring energy and fertiliser supplies,” stated Theresa Lazaro, the Philippines’ foreign affairs secretary, following a productive phone conversation with Tehran on Thursday. She emphasized that the deal secured “safe, unhindered and expeditious passage” for Filipino-flagged ships.
The Philippines, which imports 98% of its oil from the Middle East, was the first country to declare a national energy emergency when petrol prices doubled during the Iran war. Its recent agreement with Iran highlights the growing necessity for energy-dependent states to engage directly with Tehran, according to Roc Shi of the University of Technology Sydney. “Countries that need the Gulf’s energy are now recognising they must collaborate with Iran to resume shipments,” Shi noted.
Meanwhile, Pakistan announced on 28 March that Iran had agreed to permit 20 of its ships to pass through the strait. “This is a welcome and constructive gesture by Iran,” said Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, praising the move as a confidence-building step. India, too, has seen its tankers granted passage, with the Iranian Embassy in India assuring on X that “our Indian friends are in safe hands, no worries.”
Roger Fouquet from the National University of Singapore’s Energy Studies Institute pointed out the irony of the Philippines, a US ally, negotiating with Iran. “This suggests Iran is willing to compartmentalise,” he remarked, adding that the country appears to differentiate between alliances and active participation in the conflict. China’s role in facilitating access remains unclear, with officials attributing the recent transit of ships to coordination with relevant parties but withholding specifics on the terms of the arrangement.
Despite the agreements, questions linger about the extent of Tehran’s commitments. Dimitris Maniatis from shipping consultancy Marisks noted that the assurances may only cover certain vessels or flags, leaving uncertainty about their long-term viability. As the weekend approached, a Japanese entity was also reported to be involved in discussions, though the full context of its engagement remains pending.
