As former Nato chief warns about defence spending, how much has the military shrunk?
As Former NATO Chief Warns About Defence Spending, How Much Has the Military Shrunk?
Former NATO secretary general Lord Robertson, who spearheaded the UK’s recent Strategic Defence Review (SDR), has expressed concerns that the nation’s security is under threat due to inadequate defense investment. He argued that relying on an expanding welfare budget to fund military readiness is unsustainable. BBC Verify has examined the current state of the UK armed forces, revealing a significant decline in numbers since the end of the Cold War.
“We cannot defend Britain with an ever-expanding welfare budget,” Lord Robertson warned, emphasizing the need for stronger financial commitment to national security.
The UK’s army, which had 153,000 regular troops in 1990, now stands at 73,790. Despite the 2025 SDR recommending a minimum of 73,000 regular soldiers, MoD data shows a 40% drop in enlistment applications in 2025 compared to 2024. The Royal Navy’s fleet has also shrunk, decreasing from 48 major combat ships in 1990 to 11 frigates and 6 destroyers today. A recent delay in deploying HMS Dragon to the Gulf to support a RAF base in Cyprus has drawn criticism over the service’s operational preparedness.
The Royal Air Force’s combat jet count has fallen from over 300 in 1990 to a combination of 137 Eurofighter Typhoons and 37 Joint Strike Fighter F-35 Lightning IIs. While these newer models offer advanced capabilities, the overall reduction is notable. Unmanned aerial systems, or drones, now play a key role in the UK’s air power, a development absent in the 1990s. Analysts highlight their impact in the Ukraine conflict, where they have proven more deadly than conventional artillery.
Responding to Lord Robertson’s critiques, the government announced plans for the largest defense spending increase since the Cold War. It aims to commit 2.5% of GDP to NATO-qualifying defense by 2027, with an ambition to reach 3% in the next parliamentary term. However, this target is considered modest given the prolonged decline in defense budgets since the fall of the Berlin Wall. The UK’s 2025 spending of 2.3% GDP places it near the middle of NATO members’ commitments, though its 2035 goal of 5% GDP for national security includes 3.5% for core defense and 1.5% for infrastructure and civil readiness.
Lord Robertson’s concerns focus on the growing gap between defense and welfare spending. While welfare outspent defense in the mid-1980s, current figures show a reversal, with welfare projected to reach 4.3% of GDP by the end of the decade. This surge is partly due to rising claims for Personal Independence Payments (PIP), though the exact reasons for the trend remain unclear. Some suggest mental health conditions contribute to the increase, but independent researchers are still analyzing the causes.
The National Audit Office (NAO) recently evaluated the MoD’s performance, finding that 12 of its 47 major procurement projects in 2024-25 were rated ‘Red,’ meaning success seems unlikely. The report criticized delays in contract awards, with projects over £20 million taking an average of six and a half years to finalize. This contrasts with the 2025 SDR’s push for a ‘segmented approach’ to deliver contracts within two years, underscoring challenges in modernizing the military efficiently.
