Lebanon enters talks with Israel but with no cards to play
Lebanon enters talks with Israel but with no cards to play
Last August, I recall meeting President Joseph Aoun at the Baabda Palace, a modernist structure atop a hill overlooking Beirut. Aoun, a retired military leader, assumed office following a brutal war between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group and political entity backed by Iran. At that time, Hezbollah had suffered setbacks and faced internal divisions, yet Aoun insisted on disarming it as a priority. His belief in resolving the issue seemed unwavering, though he admitted his optimism was hard-won.
The ceasefire agreement that halted hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in November 2024 has not prevented ongoing Israeli strikes. Despite the fragile peace, attacks continue daily, targeting individuals and groups associated with Hezbollah. In some regions, the conflict has never truly ceased. From my residence in east Beirut, I could often hear Israeli drones circling above, a reminder of the persistent tension.
Hezbollah’s supporters view the group as their sole shield against Israeli expansion. Opponents, however, argue that Hezbollah prioritizes Iran’s interests, pulling Lebanon into wars it did not choose. This ideological divide deepened in February when Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, was killed during a US-Israeli strike on Tehran. Hezbollah retaliated with rocket attacks on Israel, framing the action as justice for Khamenei’s loss and the ongoing aerial assaults.
Aoun’s strategy involves direct dialogue with Israel, a bold move for two nations that remain hostile. The effort gained momentum last week after the US brokered a ceasefire with Iran, prompting Israel to launch widespread air strikes that claimed over 300 lives in a single day. A meeting between Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors, focusing on halting the violence, is set for Tuesday in Washington. Yet, with limited control over Hezbollah, Aoun’s options appear constrained.
A Legacy of Resistance
Hezbollah, known as the Party of God in Arabic, was established in the 1980s during Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon. Funded, trained, and armed by Iran, the group has long pursued the destruction of Israel as a core objective. The Taif Agreement of 1989 mandated militia disarmament and introduced a sectarian power-sharing system, but Hezbollah retained its arsenal by positioning itself as a resistance force against the occupation.
Israel withdrew its troops in 2000 after an 18-year presence in the region, yet territorial disputes lingered. UN Resolution 1701, enacted in 2006 to end the war and demand Hezbollah’s disarmament, has not been fully implemented. The group is classified as a terrorist organization by countries like the UK and the US, but within Lebanon, it operates as a political party, governing sectors and providing essential services where the state lacks reach.
Since taking office, Aoun has championed his “state monopoly on arms” policy, which aims to centralize weapon control. As part of the 2024 ceasefire, Hezbollah agreed to withdraw fighters and weapons from southern Lebanon, an area it had dominated for years. However, Naim Qassem, the group’s leader, has resisted nationwide disarmament. Aoun warns that forced removal of weapons could reignite violence, echoing his August remark: “We can’t let the country descend into another civil war.” The path to lasting peace remains uncertain, with both sides entrenched in their positions.
