Trump approval is falling into George W. Bush territory
Trump’s Approval Rating Mirrors Bush’s 2004 Decline
Two decades ago, George W. Bush’s approval ratings hit a critical low during late winter and early spring, marking a significant shift in public sentiment. A similar pattern is emerging with President Donald Trump in 2026, as his support dwindles toward comparable levels. The key factor in Bush’s downfall was the Iraq war, and now, the Iran conflict appears to be driving a similar trend for Trump.
Recent Polls Show Mid-30s Approval
On Tuesday, new surveys revealed Trump’s approval rating hovering around the 30s, with 36% in the Reuters-Ipsos poll and 35% in the Strength in Numbers-Verasight poll. This follows a weekend NBC News poll that indicated a new low of 37% for the president. Over the past month, CNN tracked eight out of nine reliable polls, all placing Trump in the 30s range. The sole exception was a Fox News survey, which recorded 41%, but even that marked his lowest numbers since 2017.
A Decade of Unfavorable Trends
Though Trump’s approval has dipped below 40% before, such as after the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack, his current disapproval average of 62% in the CNN Poll of Polls exceeds those levels. In 2017, his lowest disapproval scores were 63% from Pew Research Center, 61% from Quinnipiac University, and 60% from Reuters-Ipsos. Post-Capitol attack, numbers climbed slightly to 62% in a CNN poll and 61% in Quinnipiac. However, his second term has seen a more consistent decline, predating the Iran war but accelerating since.
“Inflation has long been Trump’s most pressing issue, with voters often criticizing his handling of rising costs. But the Iran war is now challenging that dominance, according to recent data.”
The Iran conflict has intensified public dissatisfaction, particularly with his economic policies. A NBC News poll showed 66% of Americans disapproving of Trump’s approach to the war, just slightly below the 68% who disapproved of his inflation management. Meanwhile, the earlier CNN poll found 67% disapproved of his Iran strategy, compared to 69% for the economy and 72% for inflation. This suggests the war is deepening existing frustrations and alienating voters who had previously remained loyal.
Historical Context and Political Significance
Trump’s approval ratings now align with the rare territory once occupied by George W. Bush, who fell into the 30s in 2004—marking the first sustained period of such low support since Jimmy Carter, per Gallup records. While Biden also experienced time in the 30s, his numbers typically remained in the high 30s. For presidents today, low approval ratings are common, but Trump’s trajectory signals something more alarming, with his support continuing to erode steadily.
